Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Verson vs RC Calais

Full time1 – 5

Alin prediction was RC Calais to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VersonDrawRC Calais

Verson vs RC Calais: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVersonDrawRC Calais
Model23%25%53%
Market———
Published23%25%53%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.14.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Verson and RC Calais expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.14Verson
1.85RC Calais
Total expected goals
3.00
Attack rating (Verson / RC Calais)
1.00 / 0.91
Defence rating (Verson / RC Calais)
1.00 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Verson vs RC Calais score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 8.2% 8.6% 5.3% 3.7% 1 4.7% 11.7% 9.8% 6.0% 4.3% 2 3.3% 6.1% 5.6% 3.5% 2.4% 3 1.2% 2.3% 2.1% 1.3% 0.9% 4+ 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Verson goals. Columns: RC Calais goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Verson vs RC Calais goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Verson vs RC Calais

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Verson23%4.44
Draw25%4.02
RC Calais53%1.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.74
Under 2.542%2.35
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.71
No41%2.41
Double chance1X (Verson or draw)47%2.11
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or RC Calais)77%1.29
Handicap -1RC Calais win by 2+31%3.26
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Verson and RC Calais recent form

RC Calais 2W 0D 1L

Last 3 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures