Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Vesoul vs Fleury 91

Full time2 – 3

Alin prediction was Fleury 91 to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VesoulDrawFleury 91

Vesoul vs Fleury 91: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVesoulDrawFleury 91
Model12%16%72%
Market———
Published12%16%72%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.85 vs 1.12.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Vesoul and Fleury 91 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.12Vesoul
2.85Fleury 91
Total expected goals
3.97
Attack rating (Vesoul / Fleury 91)
0.94 / 0.99
Defence rating (Vesoul / Fleury 91)
1.46 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vesoul vs Fleury 91 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.5% 4.8% 7.7% 7.3% 10.5% 1 1.5% 6.6% 8.6% 8.2% 11.7% 2 1.2% 3.4% 4.8% 4.6% 6.5% 3 0.4% 1.2% 1.8% 1.7% 2.4% 4+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9%

Rows: Vesoul goals. Columns: Fleury 91 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vesoul vs Fleury 91 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vesoul vs Fleury 91

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Vesoul12%8.44
Draw16%6.15
Fleury 9172%1.39
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.32
Under 2.525%4.08
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.56
No36%2.80
Double chance1X (Vesoul or draw)28%3.56
12 (either side)84%1.19
X2 (draw or Fleury 91)88%1.13
Handicap -1Fleury 91 win by 2+53%1.88
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Vesoul and Fleury 91 recent form

Vesoul 0W 0D 1L
Fleury 91 0W 2D 0L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures