Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Violaines vs US Vermelles

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was US Vermelles to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ViolainesDrawUS Vermelles

Violaines vs US Vermelles: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceViolainesDrawUS Vermelles
Model21%23%55%
Market———
Published21%23%55%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.20.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Violaines and US Vermelles expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.20Violaines
2.03US Vermelles
Total expected goals
3.24
Attack rating (Violaines / US Vermelles)
1.00 / 1.00
Defence rating (Violaines / US Vermelles)
1.00 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Violaines vs US Vermelles score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 7.0% 8.1% 5.5% 4.5% 1 3.8% 10.6% 9.8% 6.6% 5.4% 2 2.8% 5.8% 5.9% 4.0% 3.2% 3 1.1% 2.3% 2.4% 1.6% 1.3% 4+ 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: Violaines goals. Columns: US Vermelles goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Violaines vs US Vermelles goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Violaines vs US Vermelles

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Violaines21%4.68
Draw23%4.30
US Vermelles55%1.81
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.59
Under 2.537%2.68
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.62
No38%2.62
Double chance1X (Violaines or draw)45%2.24
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or US Vermelles)79%1.27
Handicap -1US Vermelles win by 2+34%2.95
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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