Ashanti Gold vs Samartex Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Ashanti Gold vs Samartex: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ashanti Gold	Draw	Samartex
Model	56%	26%	18%
Market	—	—	—
Published	56%	26%	18%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.88.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Ashanti Gold and Samartex expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.69Ashanti Gold

0.88Samartex

Total expected goals: 2.57
Attack rating (Ashanti Gold / Samartex): 1.29 / 1.07
Defence rating (Ashanti Gold / Samartex): 1.23 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ashanti Gold vs Samartex score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.8% 5.6% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 1 11.8% 12.5% 5.0% 1.5% 0.4% 2 11.0% 9.6% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 3 6.2% 5.4% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 3.8% 3.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Ashanti Gold goals. Columns: Samartex goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ashanti Gold vs Samartex goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 74%

Over 2.5 47%

Over 3.5 26%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ashanti Gold vs Samartex

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ashanti Gold	56%	1.80
	Draw	26%	3.81
	Samartex	18%	5.50
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	47%	2.11
	Under 2.5	53%	1.90
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.05
	No	51%	1.95
Double chance	1X (Ashanti Gold or draw)	82%	1.22
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Samartex)	44%	2.25
Handicap -1	Ashanti Gold win by 2+	31%	3.18
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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