Swedru All Blacks vs Asante Kotoko Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Swedru All Blacks vs Asante Kotoko: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Swedru All Blacks	Draw	Asante Kotoko
Model	64%	25%	12%
Market	—	—	—
Published	64%	25%	12%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.62.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Swedru All Blacks and Asante Kotoko expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75Swedru All Blacks

0.62Asante Kotoko

Total expected goals: 2.36
Attack rating (Swedru All Blacks / Asante Kotoko): 1.02 / 0.97
Defence rating (Swedru All Blacks / Asante Kotoko): 0.94 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Swedru All Blacks vs Asante Kotoko score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.4% 4.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1 15.4% 11.1% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2 14.4% 8.9% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 3 8.4% 5.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 5.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Swedru All Blacks goals. Columns: Asante Kotoko goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Swedru All Blacks vs Asante Kotoko goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 69%

Over 2.5 42%

Over 3.5 21%

Both teams to score: 39%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Swedru All Blacks vs Asante Kotoko

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Swedru All Blacks	64%	1.57
	Draw	25%	4.06
	Asante Kotoko	12%	8.61
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	42%	2.37
	Under 2.5	58%	1.73
Both teams to score	Yes	39%	2.56
	No	61%	1.64
Double chance	1X (Swedru All Blacks or draw)	88%	1.13
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Asante Kotoko)	36%	2.76
Handicap -1	Swedru All Blacks win by 2+	38%	2.65
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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