Bibiani Gold Stars vs Basake Holy Stars Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Bibiani Gold Stars vs Basake Holy Stars: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Bibiani Gold Stars	Draw	Basake Holy Stars
Model	65%	22%	13%
Market	—	—	—
Published	65%	22%	13%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.77.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Bibiani Gold Stars and Basake Holy Stars expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.99Bibiani Gold Stars

0.77Basake Holy Stars

Total expected goals: 2.76
Attack rating (Bibiani Gold Stars / Basake Holy Stars): 1.30 / 0.82
Defence rating (Bibiani Gold Stars / Basake Holy Stars): 1.40 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bibiani Gold Stars vs Basake Holy Stars score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 3.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 1 11.6% 10.7% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.5% 9.7% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 3 8.3% 6.4% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 6.5% 5.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Bibiani Gold Stars goals. Columns: Basake Holy Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bibiani Gold Stars vs Basake Holy Stars goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 52%

Over 3.5 30%

Both teams to score: 47%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bibiani Gold Stars vs Basake Holy Stars

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Bibiani Gold Stars	65%	1.54
	Draw	22%	4.46
	Basake Holy Stars	13%	7.90
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.92
	Under 2.5	48%	2.09
Both teams to score	Yes	47%	2.11
	No	53%	1.90
Double chance	1X (Bibiani Gold Stars or draw)	87%	1.14
	12 (either side)	78%	1.29
	X2 (draw or Basake Holy Stars)	35%	2.85
Handicap -1	Bibiani Gold Stars win by 2+	41%	2.45
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer