Karela vs Dreams Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Karela vs Dreams: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Karela	Draw	Dreams
Model	46%	29%	26%
Market	—	—	—
Published	46%	29%	26%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.03.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Karela and Dreams expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.45Karela

1.03Dreams

Total expected goals: 2.48
Attack rating (Karela / Dreams): 0.93 / 1.39
Defence rating (Karela / Dreams): 1.10 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Karela vs Dreams score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.6% 7.4% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5% 1 10.9% 13.7% 6.4% 2.2% 0.7% 2 8.8% 9.1% 4.7% 1.6% 0.5% 3 4.3% 4.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 2.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Karela goals. Columns: Dreams goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Karela vs Dreams goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 72%

Over 2.5 45%

Over 3.5 24%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Karela vs Dreams

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Karela	46%	2.19
	Draw	29%	3.46
	Dreams	26%	3.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	45%	2.21
	Under 2.5	55%	1.82
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.98
	No	49%	2.02
Double chance	1X (Karela or draw)	74%	1.34
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Dreams)	54%	1.84
Handicap -1	Karela win by 2+	23%	4.34
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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