Medeama vs Heart of Lions Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Medeama vs Heart of Lions: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Medeama	Draw	Heart of Lions
Model	72%	18%	10%
Market	—	—	—
Published	72%	18%	10%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 0.85.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Medeama and Heart of Lions expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.46Medeama

0.85Heart of Lions

Total expected goals: 3.30
Attack rating (Medeama / Heart of Lions): 1.55 / 1.17
Defence rating (Medeama / Heart of Lions): 1.07 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Medeama vs Heart of Lions score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.4% 2.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1 8.3% 8.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2 11.1% 9.4% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 3 9.1% 7.7% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 10.0% 8.5% 3.6% 1.0% 0.3%

Rows: Medeama goals. Columns: Heart of Lions goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Medeama vs Heart of Lions goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 64%

Over 3.5 42%

Both teams to score: 53%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Medeama vs Heart of Lions

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Medeama	72%	1.39
	Draw	18%	5.60
	Heart of Lions	10%	9.84
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64%	1.56
	Under 2.5	36%	2.79
Both teams to score	Yes	53%	1.89
	No	47%	2.13
Double chance	1X (Medeama or draw)	90%	1.11
	12 (either side)	82%	1.22
	X2 (draw or Heart of Lions)	28%	3.57
Handicap -1	Medeama win by 2+	50%	1.98
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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