Young Apostles vs Aduana Stars Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Young Apostles vs Aduana Stars: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Young Apostles	Draw	Aduana Stars
Model	41%	33%	26%
Market	—	—	—
Published	41%	33%	26%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Young Apostles and Aduana Stars expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.13Young Apostles

0.86Aduana Stars

Total expected goals: 1.99
Attack rating (Young Apostles / Aduana Stars): 0.93 / 1.03
Defence rating (Young Apostles / Aduana Stars): 1.24 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Young Apostles vs Aduana Stars score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.0% 10.4% 5.0% 1.4% 0.4% 1 14.2% 14.6% 5.7% 1.6% 0.4% 2 8.8% 7.5% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 3 3.3% 2.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Young Apostles goals. Columns: Aduana Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Young Apostles vs Aduana Stars goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 60%

Over 2.5 32%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 40%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Young Apostles vs Aduana Stars

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Young Apostles	41%	2.46
	Draw	33%	3.01
	Aduana Stars	26%	3.82
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	32%	3.12
	Under 2.5	68%	1.47
Both teams to score	Yes	40%	2.48
	No	60%	1.68
Double chance	1X (Young Apostles or draw)	74%	1.35
	12 (either side)	67%	1.50
	X2 (draw or Aduana Stars)	59%	1.68
Handicap -1	Young Apostles win by 2+	18%	5.67
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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