Hearts of Oak vs Port City Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Hearts of Oak vs Port City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Hearts of Oak	Draw	Port City
Model	50%	34%	16%
Market	—	—	—
Published	50%	34%	16%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.56.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Hearts of Oak and Port City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.18Hearts of Oak

0.56Port City

Total expected goals: 1.74
Attack rating (Hearts of Oak / Port City): 0.96 / 1.30
Defence rating (Hearts of Oak / Port City): 0.64 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hearts of Oak vs Port City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 18.7% 8.7% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 1 19.5% 12.8% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 2 12.2% 6.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 3 4.8% 2.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Hearts of Oak goals. Columns: Port City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hearts of Oak vs Port City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 81%

Over 1.5 53%

Over 2.5 25%

Over 3.5 10%

Both teams to score: 31%
No goals (0–0): 19%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hearts of Oak vs Port City

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Hearts of Oak	50%	2.00
	Draw	34%	2.98
	Port City	16%	6.09
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	25%	3.94
	Under 2.5	75%	1.34
Both teams to score	Yes	31%	3.24
	No	69%	1.45
Double chance	1X (Hearts of Oak or draw)	84%	1.20
	12 (either side)	66%	1.50
	X2 (draw or Port City)	50%	2.00
Handicap -1	Hearts of Oak win by 2+	23%	4.37
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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