Berekum Chelsea vs Debibi United Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Berekum Chelsea vs Debibi United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Berekum Chelsea	Draw	Debibi United
Model	57%	26%	17%
Market	—	—	—
Published	57%	26%	17%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 0.84.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Berekum Chelsea and Debibi United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.71Berekum Chelsea

0.84Debibi United

Total expected goals: 2.55
Attack rating (Berekum Chelsea / Debibi United): 1.15 / 1.05
Defence rating (Berekum Chelsea / Debibi United): 1.19 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Berekum Chelsea vs Debibi United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 5.4% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 1 12.3% 12.3% 4.7% 1.3% 0.3% 2 11.4% 9.6% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 3 6.5% 5.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 4.1% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Berekum Chelsea goals. Columns: Debibi United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Berekum Chelsea vs Debibi United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 73%

Over 2.5 47%

Over 3.5 25%

Both teams to score: 48%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Berekum Chelsea vs Debibi United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Berekum Chelsea	57%	1.76
	Draw	26%	3.84
	Debibi United	17%	5.85
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	47%	2.14
	Under 2.5	53%	1.88
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	2.10
	No	52%	1.91
Double chance	1X (Berekum Chelsea or draw)	83%	1.21
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Debibi United)	43%	2.32
Handicap -1	Berekum Chelsea win by 2+	32%	3.08
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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