Kallithea vs Larisa: model vs market
| Source | Kallithea | Draw | Larisa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 33% | 21% |
| Market | 42% | 31% | 26% |
| Published | 43% | 32% | 25% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Kallithea vs Larisa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kallithea, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kallithea | 2.15 | 2.15 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 2.93 | 2.93 | +0.00 |
| Larisa | 3.44 | 3.44 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kallithea and Larisa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.92
- Attack rating (Kallithea / Larisa)
- 1.05 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Kallithea / Larisa)
- 0.66 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kallithea vs Larisa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kallithea goals. Columns: Larisa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kallithea vs Larisa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kallithea vs Larisa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kallithea | 43% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Larisa | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.69 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kallithea or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Larisa) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kallithea win by 2+ | 21% | 4.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Kallithea and Larisa recent form
Kallithea
4W 1D 1L
Larisa
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kallithea at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Larisa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kallithea at home only, Larisa away only.
Kallithea vs Larisa head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Kallithea 2 · draws 0 · Larisa 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Kallithea | 1-3 | Larisa | Greece Cup |
| 2016-04-02 | Larisa | 1-0 | Kallithea | Football League |
| 2015-11-22 | Kallithea | 0-1 | Larisa | Football League |
| 2013-05-26 | Larisa | 2-1 | Kallithea | Football League |
| 2013-02-10 | Kallithea | 0-1 | Larisa | Football League |
| 2012-05-13 | Larisa | 0-1 | Kallithea | Football League |
| 2012-01-29 | Kallithea | 1-0 | Larisa | Football League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Panserraikos v Ellas Syros — match page 2026-10-24
- Apollon Pontou vs Niki Volos — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Olympiakos Piraeus II v Nestos Chrisoupolis — match page 2026-10-24
- Panionios vs Marko 2026-10-25
- Panthrakikos v Asteras Tripolis II — match page 2026-10-25
- Anagennisi Karditsas vs PAOK II — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Zakynthos vs Pyrgos 1968 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Kallithea, previous: Nestos Chrisoupolis – Kallithea, 2026-10-18
- Larisa, previous: Larisa v Panserraikos analysis
- Larisa, next: Larisa vs OFI prediction