Updated

Super League 2 · Matchday 8

Panserraikos vs Ellas Syros

· Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Serres

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Panserraikos to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PanserraikosDrawEllas Syros

Panserraikos vs Ellas Syros: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePanserraikosDrawEllas Syros
Model22%32%46%
Market57%26%17%
Published49%27%24%
Edge-9%+2%+7%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Panserraikos and Ellas Syros expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.79Panserraikos
1.25Ellas Syros
Total expected goals
2.04
Attack rating (Panserraikos / Ellas Syros)
1.00 / 0.98
Defence rating (Panserraikos / Ellas Syros)
1.36 / 0.60

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Panserraikos vs Ellas Syros score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.3% 15.0% 10.2% 4.2% 1.7% 1 9.0% 14.1% 8.0% 3.3% 1.4% 2 4.1% 5.1% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5% 3 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Panserraikos goals. Columns: Ellas Syros goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Panserraikos vs Ellas Syros goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 62%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Panserraikos vs Ellas Syros

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Panserraikos49%2.06
Draw27%3.65
Ellas Syros24%4.17
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533%3.00
Under 2.567%1.50
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.49
No60%1.67
Double chance1X (Panserraikos or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Ellas Syros)51%1.95
Handicap -1Panserraikos win by 2+7%13.88
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Panserraikos and Ellas Syros recent form

Panserraikos 2W 2D 2L
Ellas Syros 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Panserraikos at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.

Ellas Syros away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Panserraikos at home only, Ellas Syros away only.

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match