Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Tel Aviv preview
Hapoel Katamon faces Hapoel Tel Aviv with a 57% probability for an away win, compared to 19% for Katamon and 24% for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with expected goals of 1.07 for Katamon and 1.98 for Tel Aviv.
Both teams to score stands at 58%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 59%. Hapoel Tel Aviv's recent form shows 5 wins in their last 6 matches, while Hapoel Katamon has struggled with 3 losses in their last 6. This form could impact the outcome, especially if Katamon can improve their performance.
Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Tel Aviv: model vs market
| Source | Hapoel Katamon | Draw | Hapoel Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 23% | 59% |
| Market | 15% | 21% | 64% |
| Published | 16% | 22% | 62% |
| Edge | +3% | +2% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Tel Aviv odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hapoel Tel Aviv, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Katamon | 6.05 | 6.00 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 4.49 | 4.33 | -0.16 |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | 1.45 | 1.44 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hapoel Katamon and Hapoel Tel Aviv expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.08
- Attack rating (Hapoel Katamon / Hapoel Tel Aviv)
- 0.99 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Hapoel Katamon / Hapoel Tel Aviv)
- 1.25 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Tel Aviv score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hapoel Katamon goals. Columns: Hapoel Tel Aviv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Tel Aviv goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hapoel Katamon | 16% | 6.24 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hapoel Katamon or draw) | 38% | 2.66 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hapoel Tel Aviv win by 2+ | 36% | 2.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Hapoel Katamon and Hapoel Tel Aviv recent form
Hapoel Katamon
2W 1D 3L
Hapoel Tel Aviv
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hapoel Katamon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hapoel Tel Aviv away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hapoel Katamon at home only, Hapoel Tel Aviv away only.
Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Tel Aviv head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Hapoel Katamon 0 · draws 1 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 3-1 | Hapoel Katamon | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2025-11-08 | Hapoel Katamon | 0-0 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa 2026-10-24
- Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Beer Sheva — match page 2026-10-24
- Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem 2026-10-24
- Hapoel Ramat Gan v Maccabi Petah Tikva — match page 2026-10-24
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Bnei Sakhnin — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Ironi Tiberias vs Maccabi Netanya 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Hapoel Katamon, previous: Hapoel Beer Sheva – Hapoel Katamon, 2026-10-18
- Hapoel Tel Aviv, previous: Hapoel Tel Aviv v Ironi Tiberias analysis