Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem preview
Hapoel Petah Tikva faces Beitar Jerusalem with a 15% chance of winning compared to Beitar's 60%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with expected goals of 0.77 for Hapoel and 1.78 for Beitar. Recent form shows Hapoel struggling with 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Beitar has won 4 of their last 5.
While Over 2.5 goals has a probability of 47% and both teams to score is at 46%, the match could still end with fewer goals if Hapoel fails to improve their attacking performance. Beitar's strong recent form and head-to-head record, with 3 wins in the last 4 encounters, suggest they are the stronger side heading into this match.
Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem: model vs market
| Source | Hapoel Petah Tikva | Draw | Beitar Jerusalem |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 25% | 60% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 15% | 25% | 60% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Hapoel Petah Tikva and Beitar Jerusalem expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Hapoel Petah Tikva / Beitar Jerusalem)
- 0.54 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Hapoel Petah Tikva / Beitar Jerusalem)
- 1.14 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hapoel Petah Tikva goals. Columns: Beitar Jerusalem goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 15% | 6.81 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Beitar Jerusalem | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.19 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw) | 40% | 2.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Beitar Jerusalem) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Beitar Jerusalem win by 2+ | 36% | 2.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hapoel Petah Tikva and Beitar Jerusalem recent form
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1W 1D 4L
Beitar Jerusalem
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hapoel Petah Tikva at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Beitar Jerusalem away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hapoel Petah Tikva at home only, Beitar Jerusalem away only.
Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Beitar Jerusalem head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Hapoel Petah Tikva 0 · draws 1 · Beitar Jerusalem 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 0-0 | Beitar Jerusalem | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2026-04-28 | Beitar Jerusalem | 3-1 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2026-01-17 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 1-3 | Beitar Jerusalem | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2025-10-04 | Beitar Jerusalem | 5-2 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | Ligat Ha'al |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa 2026-10-24
- Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Beer Sheva — match page 2026-10-24
- Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Tel Aviv — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Hapoel Ramat Gan v Maccabi Petah Tikva — match page 2026-10-24
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Bnei Sakhnin — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Ironi Tiberias vs Maccabi Netanya 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Hapoel Petah Tikva, previous: Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Petah Tikva prediction
- Beitar Jerusalem, previous: Beitar Jerusalem v Maccabi Tel Aviv analysis