FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe preview
FK Tobol Kostanay has a 52% chance to win against Aktobe, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. The model suggests a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 68%. FK Tobol Kostanay's expected goals stand at 2.13, while Aktobe's is lower at 1.46.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Recent form shows FK Tobol Kostanay with D-W-W-L-W-W and Aktobe with L-W-D-W-W-L. The head-to-head record is balanced, with FK Tobol Kostanay winning once, Aktobe also winning once, and one draw in the last 3 encounters. This could affect the outcome if Aktobe finds their scoring touch.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe: model vs market
| Source | FK Tobol Kostanay | Draw | Aktobe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.70
- Attack rating (FK Tobol Kostanay / Aktobe)
- 1.26 / 1.26
- Defence rating (FK Tobol Kostanay / Aktobe)
- 1.03 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Tobol Kostanay goals. Columns: Aktobe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.58 | |
| Aktobe | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Tobol Kostanay or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Aktobe) | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Tobol Kostanay win by 2+ | 34% | 2.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe recent form
FK Tobol Kostanay
4W 1D 1L
Aktobe
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Tobol Kostanay at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-2
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 1.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.21
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Aktobe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-7
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.36
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Tobol Kostanay at home only, Aktobe away only.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FK Tobol Kostanay 1 · draws 1 · Aktobe 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Aktobe | 4-1 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-07-20 | Aktobe | 0-0 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-04-19 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 2-0 | Aktobe | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty vs Altay — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Kaspiy v Kyzyl-Zhar — match page 2026-10-31
- Zhetysu vs FC Astana — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Irtysh vs Ordabasy 2026-10-31
- Zhenys v Kaisar — match page 2026-10-31
- Ulytau vs Atyrau — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Yelimay Semey vs Okzhetpes 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- FK Tobol Kostanay, previous: Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay: odds and pick
- Aktobe, previous: Aktobe – Kairat Almaty, 2026-10-25