Irtysh vs Ordabasy preview
In the match between Irtysh and Ordabasy, the 1X2 probabilities show Irtysh at 10%, a draw at 19%, and Ordabasy at 71%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 13% chance. Ordabasy has a stronger expected goals figure at 2.28 compared to Irtysh's 0.74, indicating a significant offensive advantage.
While our model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 48%, several factors could affect these outcomes. Irtysh's recent form includes three losses in their last six matches, which may hinder their performance. Additionally, Ordabasy's recent form shows a mix of results, including a draw and a loss, which could impact their goal-scoring ability.
Irtysh vs Ordabasy: model vs market
| Source | Irtysh | Draw | Ordabasy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Irtysh and Ordabasy expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.26
- Attack rating (Irtysh / Ordabasy)
- 0.88 / 1.56
- Defence rating (Irtysh / Ordabasy)
- 1.32 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Irtysh vs Ordabasy score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Irtysh goals. Columns: Ordabasy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Irtysh vs Ordabasy goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Irtysh vs Ordabasy
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Irtysh | 12% | 8.31 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.20 | |
| Ordabasy | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Irtysh or draw) | 31% | 3.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Ordabasy) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ordabasy win by 2+ | 47% | 2.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Irtysh and Ordabasy recent form
Irtysh
3W 0D 3L
Ordabasy
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Irtysh at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-7
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 28 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ordabasy away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-3
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 2.14
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 21 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Irtysh at home only, Ordabasy away only.
Irtysh vs Ordabasy head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Irtysh 0 · draws 1 · Ordabasy 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Ordabasy | 2-2 | Irtysh | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty vs Altay — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe 2026-10-31
- Kaspiy v Kyzyl-Zhar — match page 2026-10-31
- Zhetysu vs FC Astana — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Zhenys v Kaisar — match page 2026-10-31
- Ulytau vs Atyrau — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Yelimay Semey vs Okzhetpes 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Irtysh, previous: Atyrau v Irtysh analysis
- Ordabasy, previous: Ordabasy – Zhenys, 2026-10-24