Kaspiy vs Kyzyl-Zhar preview
In the Kazakhstan Premier League fixture, Kaspiy has a 43% chance of winning against Kyzyl-Zhar, who has a 28% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% probability. Kaspiy's expected goals stand at 1.45, while Kyzyl-Zhar's is lower at 1.12.
Both teams to score has a 53% probability, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides. However, Kaspiy's recent form shows 2 losses in their last 3 matches, which could affect their performance. Kyzyl-Zhar has also struggled, with 4 losses in their last 6 games. This makes the outcome less certain, despite the statistical edge for Kaspiy.
Kaspiy vs Kyzyl-Zhar: model vs market
| Source | Kaspiy | Draw | Kyzyl-Zhar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.12.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Kaspiy and Kyzyl-Zhar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.57
- Attack rating (Kaspiy / Kyzyl-Zhar)
- 1.02 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Kaspiy / Kyzyl-Zhar)
- 1.19 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kaspiy vs Kyzyl-Zhar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kaspiy goals. Columns: Kyzyl-Zhar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kaspiy vs Kyzyl-Zhar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kaspiy vs Kyzyl-Zhar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kaspiy | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Kyzyl-Zhar | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kaspiy or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Kyzyl-Zhar) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kaspiy win by 2+ | 22% | 4.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kaspiy and Kyzyl-Zhar recent form
Kaspiy
2W 1D 3L
Kyzyl-Zhar
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kaspiy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-5
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kyzyl-Zhar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-8
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 0.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Kaspiy at home only, Kyzyl-Zhar away only.
Kaspiy vs Kyzyl-Zhar head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Kaspiy 0 · draws 0 · Kyzyl-Zhar 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 2-1 | Kaspiy | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty vs Altay — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe 2026-10-31
- Zhetysu vs FC Astana — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Irtysh vs Ordabasy 2026-10-31
- Zhenys v Kaisar — match page 2026-10-31
- Ulytau vs Atyrau — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Yelimay Semey vs Okzhetpes 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Kaspiy, previous: Okzhetpes vs Kaspiy prediction
- Kyzyl-Zhar, previous: Kyzyl-Zhar vs Ulytau: odds and pick