Updated

National Division · Matchday 12

F91 Dudelange vs Victoria Rosport

· Stade Jos Nosbaum, Dudelange

Alin prediction F91 Dudelange to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
F91 DudelangeDrawVictoria Rosport
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.83 vs 1.57.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

F91 Dudelange vs Victoria Rosport preview

F91 Dudelange has a 63% chance to win against Victoria Rosport, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1 at 8%. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams to score at 75%. F91 Dudelange's expected goals stand at 2.82, while Victoria Rosport's is 1.57.

However, recent form shows F91 Dudelange with mixed results, including 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches. Victoria Rosport has struggled, recording only 1 win in their last 6 games. Additionally, in their last 2 head-to-head encounters, F91 Dudelange has not secured a win, with 1 draw and 1 loss. This could impact the match outcome.

F91 Dudelange vs Victoria Rosport: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceF91 DudelangeDrawVictoria Rosport
Model63%18%19%
Market———
Published63%18%19%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.83 vs 1.57.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

F91 Dudelange and Victoria Rosport expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.83F91 Dudelange
1.57Victoria Rosport
Total expected goals
4.39
Attack rating (F91 Dudelange / Victoria Rosport)
1.21 / 1.09
Defence rating (F91 Dudelange / Victoria Rosport)
1.02 / 1.46

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

F91 Dudelange vs Victoria Rosport score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.8% 1.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.4% 1 2.9% 6.0% 4.3% 2.2% 1.2% 2 4.9% 7.7% 6.1% 3.2% 1.8% 3 4.7% 7.3% 5.7% 3.0% 1.7% 4+ 6.6% 10.3% 8.0% 4.2% 2.3%

Rows: F91 Dudelange goals. Columns: Victoria Rosport goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

F91 Dudelange vs Victoria Rosport goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 81%
Over 3.5 64%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for F91 Dudelange vs Victoria Rosport

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2F91 Dudelange63%1.58
Draw18%5.61
Victoria Rosport19%5.30
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581%1.23
Under 2.519%5.38
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.33
No25%4.00
Double chance1X (F91 Dudelange or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or Victoria Rosport)37%2.72
Handicap -1F91 Dudelange win by 2+44%2.26
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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F91 Dudelange and Victoria Rosport recent form

F91 Dudelange 3W 1D 2L
Victoria Rosport 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

F91 Dudelange at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-3
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.20
Goals against / match
2.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Victoria Rosport away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
2.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: F91 Dudelange at home only, Victoria Rosport away only.

F91 Dudelange vs Victoria Rosport head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: F91 Dudelange 0 · draws 1 · Victoria Rosport 1.

F91 DudelangeDrawsVictoria Rosport
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-03F91 Dudelange1-2Victoria RosportNational Division
2025-12-03Victoria Rosport0-0F91 DudelangeNational Division

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot F91 Dudelange to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on F91 Dudelange