Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange preview
Progres Niederkorn faces Swift Hesperange with a strong 84% probability to win, while Swift Hesperange has just a 4% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.75 for Progres Niederkorn and 0.50 for Swift Hesperange.
However, Progres Niederkorn's recent form shows inconsistency with two losses in their last five matches. Meanwhile, Swift Hesperange is on a six-match losing streak. This could impact the expected outcome, as any improvement in Swift Hesperange's performance might challenge the predicted score and probabilities, especially for Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 37%.
Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange: model vs market
| Source | Progres Niederkorn | Draw | Swift Hesperange |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 84% | 12% | 4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 84% | 12% | 4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 0.50.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Progres Niederkorn and Swift Hesperange expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Progres Niederkorn / Swift Hesperange)
- 0.90 / 0.43
- Defence rating (Progres Niederkorn / Swift Hesperange)
- 0.82 / 1.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Progres Niederkorn goals. Columns: Swift Hesperange goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progres Niederkorn | 84% | 1.20 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.06 | |
| Swift Hesperange | 4% | 25.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.67 |
| No | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Progres Niederkorn or draw) | 96% | 1.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or Swift Hesperange) | 16% | 6.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Progres Niederkorn win by 2+ | 64% | 1.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Progres Niederkorn and Swift Hesperange recent form
Progres Niederkorn
3W 1D 2L
Swift Hesperange
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Progres Niederkorn at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Swift Hesperange away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Progres Niederkorn at home only, Swift Hesperange away only.
Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Progres Niederkorn 1 · draws 1 · Swift Hesperange 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Progres Niederkorn | 1-1 | Swift Hesperange | National Division |
| 2025-08-17 | Swift Hesperange | 1-4 | Progres Niederkorn | National Division |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Progres Niederkorn, previous: Etzella Ettelbruck – Progres Niederkorn, 2026-10-24
- Swift Hesperange, previous: Swift Hesperange vs AS Jeunesse Esch: odds and pick