Swift Hesperange vs Victoria Rosport: model vs market
| Source | Swift Hesperange | Draw | Victoria Rosport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Swift Hesperange and Victoria Rosport expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (Swift Hesperange / Victoria Rosport)
- 0.50 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Swift Hesperange / Victoria Rosport)
- 1.83 / 1.44
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Swift Hesperange vs Victoria Rosport score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Swift Hesperange goals. Columns: Victoria Rosport goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Swift Hesperange vs Victoria Rosport goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Swift Hesperange vs Victoria Rosport
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swift Hesperange | 17% | 5.88 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.76 | |
| Victoria Rosport | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.63 |
| No | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Swift Hesperange or draw) | 38% | 2.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Victoria Rosport) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Victoria Rosport win by 2+ | 40% | 2.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Swift Hesperange and Victoria Rosport recent form
Swift Hesperange
0W 0D 6L
Victoria Rosport
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Swift Hesperange at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They average 0.5 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 7 matches.
Victoria Rosport away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Swift Hesperange at home only, Victoria Rosport away only.
Swift Hesperange vs Victoria Rosport head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Swift Hesperange 1 · draws 1 · Victoria Rosport 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Swift Hesperange | 3-0 | Victoria Rosport | National Division |
| 2025-12-07 | Victoria Rosport | 2-2 | Swift Hesperange | National Division |
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