Wiltz vs UNA Strassen: model vs market
| Source | Wiltz | Draw | UNA Strassen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 9% | 18% | 73% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 9% | 18% | 73% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Wiltz and UNA Strassen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.23
- Attack rating (Wiltz / UNA Strassen)
- 1.01 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Wiltz / UNA Strassen)
- 1.54 / 0.50
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wiltz vs UNA Strassen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wiltz goals. Columns: UNA Strassen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wiltz vs UNA Strassen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wiltz vs UNA Strassen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wiltz | 9% | 10.87 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.70 | |
| UNA Strassen | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wiltz or draw) | 27% | 3.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or UNA Strassen) | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | UNA Strassen win by 2+ | 52% | 1.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Wiltz and UNA Strassen recent form
Wiltz
0W 0D 6L
UNA Strassen
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wiltz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
UNA Strassen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wiltz at home only, UNA Strassen away only.
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