US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn: model vs market
| Source | US Hostert | Draw | Progres Niederkorn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
US Hostert and Progres Niederkorn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (US Hostert / Progres Niederkorn)
- 1.04 / 1.00
- Defence rating (US Hostert / Progres Niederkorn)
- 0.96 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: US Hostert goals. Columns: Progres Niederkorn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | US Hostert | 33% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Progres Niederkorn | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (US Hostert or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Progres Niederkorn) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Progres Niederkorn win by 2+ | 18% | 5.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
US Hostert and Progres Niederkorn recent form
US Hostert
3W 2D 1L
Progres Niederkorn
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
US Hostert at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Progres Niederkorn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: US Hostert at home only, Progres Niederkorn away only.
US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: US Hostert 0 · draws 0 · Progres Niederkorn 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | US Hostert | 1-5 | Progres Niederkorn | National Division |
| 2025-10-01 | Progres Niederkorn | 2-1 | US Hostert | National Division |
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