Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11

CA La Paz vs Venados FC

· Estadio Guaycura, La Paz· Referee E. L. Sanchez M.

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was CA La Paz to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CA La PazDrawVenados FC

CA La Paz vs Venados FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCA La PazDrawVenados FC
Model67%17%16%
Market59%21%20%
Published61%20%19%
Edge+8%-4%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 1.40.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices CA La Paz below the model: +7.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

CA La Paz vs Venados FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on CA La Paz, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.53Now 1.55 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
CA La Paz1.531.55+0.02
Draw4.254.40+0.15
Venados FC4.754.60-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

CA La Paz and Venados FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.87CA La Paz
1.40Venados FC
Total expected goals
4.28
Attack rating (CA La Paz / Venados FC)
1.33 / 1.44
Defence rating (CA La Paz / Venados FC)
0.85 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CA La Paz vs Venados FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.0% 1.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 1 3.4% 6.2% 3.9% 1.8% 0.9% 2 5.7% 8.0% 5.6% 2.6% 1.3% 3 5.5% 7.7% 5.4% 2.5% 1.2% 4+ 8.0% 11.2% 7.8% 3.7% 1.8%

Rows: CA La Paz goals. Columns: Venados FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CA La Paz vs Venados FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 62%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CA La Paz vs Venados FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2CA La Paz61%1.63
Draw20%5.02
Venados FC19%5.29
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.25
Under 2.520%4.97
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.39
No28%3.53
Double chance1X (CA La Paz or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or Venados FC)39%2.58
Handicap -1CA La Paz win by 2+48%2.08
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

CA La Paz and Venados FC recent form

CA La Paz 4W 2D 0L
Venados FC 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

CA La Paz at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.80
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.

Venados FC away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: CA La Paz at home only, Venados FC away only.

CA La Paz vs Venados FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: CA La Paz 5 · draws 2 · Venados FC 3.

CA La PazDrawsVenados FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-31CA La Paz1-0Venados FCLiga de Expansión MX
2025-08-23Venados FC3-3CA La PazLiga de Expansión MX
2025-02-08Venados FC2-1CA La PazLiga de Expansión MX
2024-08-24CA La Paz1-1Venados FCLiga de Expansión MX
2024-04-27Venados FC2-3CA La PazLiga de Expansión MX
2024-04-25CA La Paz3-1Venados FCLiga de Expansión MX
2024-04-10CA La Paz0-1Venados FCLiga de Expansión MX
2023-11-12Venados FC1-0CA La PazLiga de Expansión MX
2023-08-12Venados FC1-3CA La PazLiga de Expansión MX
2023-03-29CA La Paz3-2Venados FCLiga de Expansión MX

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