Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11

Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas

· Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango· Referee A. Barba

Full time4 – 2

Alin prediction was Durango to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
DurangoDrawMineros de Zacatecas

Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDurangoDrawMineros de Zacatecas
Model37%34%30%
Market———
Published37%34%30%
Edge———

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Durango and Mineros de Zacatecas expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.05Durango
0.92Mineros de Zacatecas
Total expected goals
1.98
Attack rating (Durango / Mineros de Zacatecas)
0.68 / 1.15
Defence rating (Durango / Mineros de Zacatecas)
0.70 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.2% 11.4% 5.9% 1.8% 0.5% 1 13.3% 14.8% 6.2% 1.9% 0.5% 2 7.7% 7.1% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 3 2.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Durango goals. Columns: Mineros de Zacatecas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 60%
Over 2.5 32%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Durango37%2.73
Draw34%2.97
Mineros de Zacatecas30%3.36
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532%3.16
Under 2.568%1.46
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.46
No59%1.68
Double chance1X (Durango or draw)70%1.42
12 (either side)66%1.51
X2 (draw or Mineros de Zacatecas)63%1.58
Handicap -1Durango win by 2+15%6.67
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Durango and Mineros de Zacatecas recent form

Durango 2W 2D 2L
Mineros de Zacatecas 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Durango at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.

Mineros de Zacatecas away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Durango at home only, Mineros de Zacatecas away only.

Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Durango 2 · draws 0 · Mineros de Zacatecas 0.

DurangoDrawsMineros de Zacatecas
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-01-28Mineros de Zacatecas1-2DurangoLiga de Expansión MX
2022-10-15Durango4-1Mineros de ZacatecasLiga de Expansión MX

Other Apertura - 11 fixtures