Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11

Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero

· Referee J. L. Alba Dorado

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was CDS Tampico Madero to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TepatitlánDrawCDS Tampico Madero

Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTepatitlánDrawCDS Tampico Madero
Model26%28%45%
Market25%24%51%
Published26%25%49%
Edge+1%+4%-5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero odds movement

Median bookmaker price on CDS Tampico Madero, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-26.

Opened 1.85Now 1.82 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Tepatitlán3.663.65-0.01
Draw3.403.80+0.40
CDS Tampico Madero1.851.82-0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Tepatitlán and CDS Tampico Madero expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.08Tepatitlán
1.48CDS Tampico Madero
Total expected goals
2.56
Attack rating (Tepatitlán / CDS Tampico Madero)
0.58 / 0.80
Defence rating (Tepatitlán / CDS Tampico Madero)
1.62 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 10.2% 8.5% 4.2% 2.2% 1 7.1% 13.6% 9.2% 4.5% 2.3% 2 4.5% 6.7% 5.0% 2.4% 1.3% 3 1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 4+ 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Tepatitlán goals. Columns: CDS Tampico Madero goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Tepatitlán26%3.92
Draw25%3.96
CDS Tampico Madero49%2.03
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.12
Under 2.553%1.90
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.91
No48%2.10
Double chance1X (Tepatitlán or draw)51%1.97
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or CDS Tampico Madero)74%1.34
Handicap -1CDS Tampico Madero win by 2+23%4.34
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Tepatitlán and CDS Tampico Madero recent form

Tepatitlán 1W 0D 5L
CDS Tampico Madero 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Tepatitlán at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-4
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
2.60
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.

CDS Tampico Madero away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-5
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.20
Goals against / match
2.20
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Tepatitlán at home only, CDS Tampico Madero away only.

Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Tepatitlán 3 · draws 3 · CDS Tampico Madero 4.

TepatitlánDrawsCDS Tampico Madero
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-31CDS Tampico Madero2-0TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX
2026-05-24Tepatitlán3-1CDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX
2026-05-17Tepatitlán1-0CDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX
2026-05-10CDS Tampico Madero0-0TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX
2026-01-18CDS Tampico Madero0-1TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX
2025-11-23CDS Tampico Madero1-0TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX
2025-11-21Tepatitlán0-1CDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX
2025-08-09Tepatitlán0-0CDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX
2025-03-30CDS Tampico Madero2-1TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX
2024-10-12Tepatitlán1-1CDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX

Other Apertura - 11 fixtures