Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11

Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca

· Referee E. Miranda

Full time4 – 0

Alin prediction was Piratas to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PiratasDrawAlebrijes de Oaxaca

Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePiratasDrawAlebrijes de Oaxaca
Model66%22%11%
Market72%18%9%
Published71%19%10%
Edge-6%+4%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.70.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Piratas, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.20Now 1.27 +0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Piratas1.201.27+0.07
Draw5.255.00-0.25
Alebrijes de Oaxaca10.5010.00-0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Piratas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.96Piratas
0.70Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Total expected goals
2.66
Attack rating (Piratas / Alebrijes de Oaxaca)
0.90 / 0.70
Defence rating (Piratas / Alebrijes de Oaxaca)
0.88 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 3.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1 12.7% 10.6% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 2 13.4% 9.4% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 3 8.8% 6.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 6.7% 4.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Piratas goals. Columns: Alebrijes de Oaxaca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Piratas71%1.41
Draw19%5.16
Alebrijes de Oaxaca10%10.24
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%2.01
Under 2.550%1.99
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.26
No56%1.79
Double chance1X (Piratas or draw)90%1.11
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Alebrijes de Oaxaca)29%3.43
Handicap -1Piratas win by 2+42%2.41
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Piratas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca recent form

Piratas 2W 2D 2L
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Piratas at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-4
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
2.40
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Piratas at home only, Alebrijes de Oaxaca away only.

Other Apertura - 11 fixtures