Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11

Correcaminos Uat vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo

· Referee F. Portillo

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Correcaminos Uat to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Correcaminos UatDrawCruz Azul Hidalgo

Correcaminos Uat vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCorrecaminos UatDrawCruz Azul Hidalgo
Model60%21%19%
Market———
Published60%21%19%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.22.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Correcaminos Uat and Cruz Azul Hidalgo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.25Correcaminos Uat
1.22Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Total expected goals
3.47
Attack rating (Correcaminos Uat / Cruz Azul Hidalgo)
1.05 / 0.84
Defence rating (Correcaminos Uat / Cruz Azul Hidalgo)
1.25 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Correcaminos Uat vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 2.9% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 1 6.2% 9.4% 5.2% 2.1% 0.8% 2 7.9% 9.6% 5.8% 2.4% 0.9% 3 5.9% 7.2% 4.4% 1.8% 0.7% 4+ 5.7% 6.9% 4.2% 1.7% 0.7%

Rows: Correcaminos Uat goals. Columns: Cruz Azul Hidalgo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Correcaminos Uat vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Correcaminos Uat vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Correcaminos Uat60%1.67
Draw21%4.69
Cruz Azul Hidalgo19%5.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.48
Under 2.533%3.06
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.57
No36%2.76
Double chance1X (Correcaminos Uat or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Cruz Azul Hidalgo)40%2.49
Handicap -1Correcaminos Uat win by 2+39%2.59
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Correcaminos Uat and Cruz Azul Hidalgo recent form

Correcaminos Uat 2W 2D 2L
Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Correcaminos Uat at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.20
Goals against / match
2.40
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Correcaminos Uat at home only, Cruz Azul Hidalgo away only.

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