Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11

Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados

· Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara· Referee D. S. Perez Borja

Full time6 – 3

Alin prediction was Leones Negros UDG to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Leones Negros UDGDrawDorados

Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLeones Negros UDGDrawDorados
Model56%24%20%
Market58%23%19%
Published58%23%19%
Edge-2%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Leones Negros UDG, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.68Now 1.58 -0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Leones Negros UDG1.681.58-0.09
Draw3.904.05+0.15
Dorados3.994.94+0.95

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Leones Negros UDG and Dorados expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.96Leones Negros UDG
1.12Dorados
Total expected goals
3.08
Attack rating (Leones Negros UDG / Dorados)
1.18 / 1.03
Defence rating (Leones Negros UDG / Dorados)
0.95 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 4.1% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4% 1 8.0% 11.1% 5.6% 2.1% 0.7% 2 8.8% 9.9% 5.5% 2.1% 0.7% 3 5.8% 6.5% 3.6% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 4.5% 5.0% 2.8% 1.0% 0.4%

Rows: Leones Negros UDG goals. Columns: Dorados goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Leones Negros UDG58%1.73
Draw23%4.33
Dorados19%5.23
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.68
Under 2.541%2.47
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.70
No41%2.43
Double chance1X (Leones Negros UDG or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Dorados)42%2.37
Handicap -1Leones Negros UDG win by 2+34%2.96
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Leones Negros UDG and Dorados recent form

Leones Negros UDG 3W 2D 1L
Dorados 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Leones Negros UDG at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.

Dorados away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Leones Negros UDG at home only, Dorados away only.

Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Leones Negros UDG 8 · draws 2 · Dorados 0.

Leones Negros UDGDrawsDorados
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-15Dorados1-1Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2025-10-05Leones Negros UDG2-0DoradosLiga de Expansión MX
2025-01-19Leones Negros UDG4-0DoradosLiga de Expansión MX
2024-08-04Dorados0-1Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2024-03-21Dorados1-2Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2023-09-15Leones Negros UDG4-0DoradosLiga de Expansión MX
2023-04-21Leones Negros UDG2-0DoradosLiga de Expansión MX
2022-09-29Dorados0-2Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2022-01-31Dorados0-1Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2021-08-13Leones Negros UDG0-0DoradosLiga de Expansión MX

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