Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11

Cancún vs Tapatío

· Referee O. Ortega

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Cancún to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CancúnDrawTapatío

Cancún vs Tapatío: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCancúnDrawTapatío
Model56%22%22%
Market55%24%21%
Published55%24%21%
Edge+1%-2%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.34.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cancún vs Tapatío odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cancún, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.62Now 1.67 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cancún1.621.67+0.05
Draw3.823.78-0.04
Tapatío4.584.40-0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cancún and Tapatío expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.19Cancún
1.34Tapatío
Total expected goals
3.53
Attack rating (Cancún / Tapatío)
1.16 / 1.18
Defence rating (Cancún / Tapatío)
0.99 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cancún vs Tapatío score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.8% 3.1% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5% 1 5.6% 9.4% 5.7% 2.6% 1.1% 2 7.1% 9.4% 6.3% 2.8% 1.3% 3 5.2% 6.9% 4.6% 2.0% 0.9% 4+ 4.7% 6.3% 4.2% 1.9% 0.8%

Rows: Cancún goals. Columns: Tapatío goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cancún vs Tapatío goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 47%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cancún vs Tapatío

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cancún55%1.81
Draw24%4.22
Tapatío21%4.74
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.46
Under 2.532%3.17
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.51
No34%2.97
Double chance1X (Cancún or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Tapatío)45%2.23
Handicap -1Cancún win by 2+35%2.84
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cancún and Tapatío recent form

Cancún 2W 2D 2L
Tapatío 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cancún at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.40
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tapatío away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Cancún at home only, Tapatío away only.

Cancún vs Tapatío head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Cancún 4 · draws 3 · Tapatío 3.

CancúnDrawsTapatío
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-27Cancún1-0TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX
2026-04-24Tapatío1-1CancúnLiga de Expansión MX
2026-03-06Tapatío1-2CancúnLiga de Expansión MX
2025-09-28Cancún1-0TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX
2025-04-06Cancún1-2TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX
2024-10-20Tapatío2-0CancúnLiga de Expansión MX
2024-03-27Cancún1-1TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX
2023-07-22Tapatío0-0CancúnLiga de Expansión MX
2023-03-30Cancún1-0TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX
2022-08-26Tapatío1-0CancúnLiga de Expansión MX

Other Apertura - 11 fixtures