Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11

Monarcas vs Tlaxcala

· Estadio Morelos, Morelia· Referee A. Lopez

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Monarcas to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MonarcasDrawTlaxcala

Monarcas vs Tlaxcala: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMonarcasDrawTlaxcala
Model66%20%14%
Market64%21%15%
Published65%21%15%
Edge+1%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 1.04.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Monarcas vs Tlaxcala odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Monarcas, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.50Now 1.42 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Monarcas1.501.42-0.08
Draw4.254.40+0.15
Tlaxcala5.456.10+0.65

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Monarcas and Tlaxcala expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.35Monarcas
1.04Tlaxcala
Total expected goals
3.39
Attack rating (Monarcas / Tlaxcala)
1.09 / 1.14
Defence rating (Monarcas / Tlaxcala)
0.79 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Monarcas vs Tlaxcala score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.2% 2.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 1 7.1% 9.0% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 2 9.3% 9.7% 5.0% 1.7% 0.6% 3 7.3% 7.6% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 4+ 7.5% 7.8% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5%

Rows: Monarcas goals. Columns: Tlaxcala goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Monarcas vs Tlaxcala goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Monarcas vs Tlaxcala

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Monarcas65%1.55
Draw21%4.87
Tlaxcala15%6.75
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.52
Under 2.534%2.93
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.68
No41%2.46
Double chance1X (Monarcas or draw)85%1.17
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Tlaxcala)35%2.83
Handicap -1Monarcas win by 2+44%2.27
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Monarcas and Tlaxcala recent form

Monarcas 4W 0D 2L
Tlaxcala 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Monarcas at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-1
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tlaxcala away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
2.60
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Monarcas at home only, Tlaxcala away only.

Monarcas vs Tlaxcala head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Monarcas 6 · draws 3 · Tlaxcala 1.

MonarcasDrawsTlaxcala
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-12Monarcas0-0TlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX
2025-11-02Tlaxcala0-1MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX
2025-04-20Tlaxcala1-1MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX
2024-11-01Monarcas2-1TlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX
2024-02-09Monarcas3-1TlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX
2023-09-20Tlaxcala2-3MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX
2023-01-06Tlaxcala0-0MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX
2022-07-06Monarcas2-0TlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX
2022-01-09Tlaxcala0-4MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX
2021-11-09Monarcas1-3TlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX

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