Ikorodu City vs Shooting Stars preview
In the Nigeria Premier Football League fixture between Ikorodu City and Shooting Stars, the 1X2 probabilities show Ikorodu City at 68%, while Shooting Stars is at just 11%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-0, with a 13% chance of occurring. Ikorodu City has an expected goals figure of 2.04, compared to Shooting Stars' 0.70, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
However, the confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty. While there is a 52% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score, the recent form of Shooting Stars, which includes 6 games without a win, could impact their performance.
Ikorodu City vs Shooting Stars: model vs market
| Source | Ikorodu City | Draw | Shooting Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ikorodu City and Shooting Stars expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (Ikorodu City / Shooting Stars)
- 1.14 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Ikorodu City / Shooting Stars)
- 1.16 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ikorodu City vs Shooting Stars score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ikorodu City goals. Columns: Shooting Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ikorodu City vs Shooting Stars goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ikorodu City vs Shooting Stars
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ikorodu City | 64% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Shooting Stars | 13% | 7.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ikorodu City or draw) | 87% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Shooting Stars) | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ikorodu City win by 2+ | 40% | 2.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ikorodu City and Shooting Stars recent form
Ikorodu City
2W 1D 3L
Shooting Stars
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ikorodu City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Shooting Stars away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ikorodu City at home only, Shooting Stars away only.
Ikorodu City vs Shooting Stars head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ikorodu City 1 · draws 1 · Shooting Stars 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | Ikorodu City | 1-0 | Shooting Stars | Nigeria Premier Football League |
| 2025-09-07 | Shooting Stars | 1-1 | Ikorodu City | Nigeria Premier Football League |
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Before and after this match
- Ikorodu City, previous: Niger Tornadoes vs Ikorodu City: odds and pick
- Shooting Stars, previous: Shooting Stars vs Ranchers Bees: odds and pick