Ballymena United vs Bangor preview
Ballymena United faces Bangor with a 61% chance of winning, while Bangor has only a 16% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Ballymena's expected goals of 2.00 compared to Bangor's 0.92. The model suggests a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 53%.
However, recent form shows Ballymena United with mixed results, including two draws, while Bangor has struggled with four losses in their last six matches. This inconsistency could influence the outcome, making it possible for Bangor to perform better than expected. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Ballymena United vs Bangor: model vs market
| Source | Ballymena United | Draw | Bangor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Published | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ballymena United vs Bangor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ballymena United, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ballymena United | 1.62 | 1.60 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.95 | +0.01 |
| Bangor | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ballymena United and Bangor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Ballymena United / Bangor)
- 1.06 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Ballymena United / Bangor)
- 0.97 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ballymena United vs Bangor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ballymena United goals. Columns: Bangor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ballymena United vs Bangor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ballymena United vs Bangor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ballymena United | 59% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Bangor | 18% | 5.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ballymena United or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Bangor) | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ballymena United win by 2+ | 39% | 2.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ballymena United and Bangor recent form
Ballymena United
3W 2D 1L
Bangor
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ballymena United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Bangor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ballymena United at home only, Bangor away only.
Ballymena United vs Bangor head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Ballymena United 2 · draws 3 · Bangor 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Bangor | 2-2 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-04-15 | Ballymena United | 0-0 | Bangor | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-12-30 | Bangor | 2-0 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-11-08 | Bangor | 2-3 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-08-23 | Ballymena United | 4-0 | Bangor | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2024-07-20 | Ballymena United | 1-1 | Bangor | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Coleraine FC v Glentoran — match page 2026-10-30
- Larne vs Portadown 2026-10-30
- Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Cliftonville FC vs Carrick Rangers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Limavady United v Crusaders FC — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Ballymena United, previous: Glentoran vs Ballymena United: odds and pick
- Bangor, previous: Bangor vs Larne prediction