Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts preview
Linfield faces Dungannon Swifts with a 64% probability of winning, compared to Dungannon's 13%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 13% chance of occurring. Linfield's expected goals stand at 1.86, while Dungannon's is only 0.72, indicating a significant attacking advantage for Linfield.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Dungannon Swifts manages to improve their form, as they have not won in their last 6 matches. With 44% for both teams to score, there is a possibility that Dungannon could find the net, which would impact the expected outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the prediction.
Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts: model vs market
| Source | Linfield | Draw | Dungannon Swifts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Published | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Linfield, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linfield | 1.48 | 1.48 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.00 |
| Dungannon Swifts | 5.33 | 5.33 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Linfield and Dungannon Swifts expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.57
- Attack rating (Linfield / Dungannon Swifts)
- 1.11 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Linfield / Dungannon Swifts)
- 0.68 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Linfield goals. Columns: Dungannon Swifts goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Linfield | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 | |
| Dungannon Swifts | 16% | 6.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Linfield or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Dungannon Swifts) | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Linfield win by 2+ | 39% | 2.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Linfield and Dungannon Swifts recent form
Linfield
5W 1D 0L
Dungannon Swifts
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Linfield at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 9 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dungannon Swifts away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Linfield at home only, Dungannon Swifts away only.
Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Linfield 9 · draws 1 · Dungannon Swifts 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Dungannon Swifts | 0-1 | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-05-12 | Linfield | 3-1 | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-04-07 | Dungannon Swifts | 1-3 | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-02-17 | Dungannon Swifts | 1-4 | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-02-10 | Linfield | 6-0 | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-08-10 | Linfield | 3-0 | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-07-04 | Linfield | 0-0 | Dungannon Swifts | Charity Shield |
| 2025-04-12 | Linfield | 2-0 | Dungannon Swifts | Premiership |
| 2025-03-24 | Dungannon Swifts | 0-3 | Linfield | Premiership |
| 2024-12-17 | Dungannon Swifts | 0-1 | Linfield | Premiership |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Coleraine FC v Glentoran — match page 2026-10-30
- Larne vs Portadown 2026-10-30
- Ballymena United vs Bangor 2026-10-31
- Cliftonville FC vs Carrick Rangers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Limavady United v Crusaders FC — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Linfield, previous: Portadown vs Linfield prediction
- Dungannon Swifts, previous: Dungannon Swifts v Cliftonville FC analysis