Ballymena United vs Linfield preview
In the Northern Ireland Premiership fixture between Ballymena United and Linfield, the 1X2 probabilities show Ballymena United at 20%, a draw at 25%, and Linfield at 55%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance. Ballymena United's expected goals are 0.89, while Linfield's are significantly higher at 1.48.
Ballymena United's recent form includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, while Linfield has 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 42%, and both teams to score sits at 47%. If Ballymena United can improve their scoring, they might challenge Linfield's dominance, which has seen them win 7 of the last 10 encounters.
Ballymena United vs Linfield: model vs market
| Source | Ballymena United | Draw | Linfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 29% | 50% |
| Market | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Published | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ballymena United vs Linfield odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Linfield, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ballymena United | 4.20 | 4.65 | +0.45 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.90 | +0.25 |
| Linfield | 1.73 | 1.59 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ballymena United and Linfield expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.37
- Attack rating (Ballymena United / Linfield)
- 0.93 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Ballymena United / Linfield)
- 0.94 / 0.62
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ballymena United vs Linfield score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ballymena United goals. Columns: Linfield goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ballymena United vs Linfield goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ballymena United vs Linfield
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ballymena United | 20% | 5.00 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Linfield | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ballymena United or draw) | 45% | 2.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Linfield) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Linfield win by 2+ | 26% | 3.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ballymena United and Linfield recent form
Ballymena United
3W 1D 2L
Linfield
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ballymena United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
Linfield away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-0
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 11 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ballymena United at home only, Linfield away only.
Ballymena United vs Linfield head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Ballymena United 2 · draws 1 · Linfield 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Linfield | 0-3 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-01-31 | Linfield | 2-1 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-01-28 | Linfield | 1-0 | Ballymena United | League Cup |
| 2025-10-25 | Linfield | 2-1 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-09-16 | Ballymena United | 1-0 | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-02-07 | Ballymena United | 2-2 | Linfield | Premiership |
| 2024-11-09 | Linfield | 2-0 | Ballymena United | Premiership |
| 2024-08-10 | Ballymena United | 0-2 | Linfield | Premiership |
| 2024-02-24 | Linfield | 2-0 | Ballymena United | Premiership |
| 2024-02-03 | Linfield | 2-0 | Ballymena United | Irish Cup |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Coleraine FC vs Portadown 2026-11-13
- Carrick Rangers v Crusaders FC — match page 2026-11-13
- Glentoran vs Bangor — team news & stats 2026-11-13
- Larne vs Dungannon Swifts 2026-11-13
- Limavady United v Cliftonville FC — match page 2026-11-13
Before and after this match
- Ballymena United, previous: Portadown – Ballymena United, 2026-11-07
- Linfield, previous: Linfield vs Coleraine FC: odds and pick