Larne vs Dungannon Swifts preview
In the Northern Ireland Premiership fixture between Larne and Dungannon Swifts, the 1X2 probabilities show Larne at 60% to win, while Dungannon Swifts sit at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance. Larne's expected goals are 1.98, compared to Dungannon Swifts' 1.11, indicating a stronger attacking performance from Larne.
Both teams to score stands at 59%, and Over 2.5 goals is projected at 60%. However, Larne's recent form shows inconsistency with two losses in their last five matches, which could affect their performance. Dungannon Swifts have also struggled, with only one win in their last five games.
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts: model vs market
| Source | Larne | Draw | Dungannon Swifts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Published | 60% | 22% | 17% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Larne, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larne | 1.45 | 1.47 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.10 | -0.10 |
| Dungannon Swifts | 5.35 | 5.50 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Larne and Dungannon Swifts expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Larne / Dungannon Swifts)
- 1.17 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Larne / Dungannon Swifts)
- 0.95 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Larne goals. Columns: Dungannon Swifts goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Larne vs Dungannon Swifts
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 60% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.46 | |
| Dungannon Swifts | 17% | 5.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Larne or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Dungannon Swifts) | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win by 2+ | 34% | 2.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Larne and Dungannon Swifts recent form
Larne
2W 1D 3L
Dungannon Swifts
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Larne at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dungannon Swifts away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Larne at home only, Dungannon Swifts away only.
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Larne 5 · draws 2 · Dungannon Swifts 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Larne | 8-0 | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-03-13 | Larne | 2-1 | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-11-29 | Dungannon Swifts | 1-2 | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-10-04 | Dungannon Swifts | 2-0 | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-04-01 | Dungannon Swifts | 1-1 | Larne | Premiership |
| 2025-02-22 | Larne | 0-1 | Dungannon Swifts | Premiership |
| 2024-12-23 | Dungannon Swifts | 0-1 | Larne | Premiership |
| 2024-10-06 | Larne | 0-3 | Dungannon Swifts | Premiership |
| 2024-01-20 | Dungannon Swifts | 0-2 | Larne | Premiership |
| 2023-10-13 | Dungannon Swifts | 0-0 | Larne | Premiership |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Larne, previous: Cliftonville FC vs Larne prediction
- Dungannon Swifts, previous: Dungannon Swifts vs Limavady United: odds and pick