Cliftonville FC vs Larne preview
In the Northern Ireland Premiership fixture between Cliftonville FC and Larne, the 1X2 probabilities show Larne at 48%, compared to Cliftonville FC's 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, which occurs with an 8% chance. With both teams scoring at 59% and Over 2.5 goals at 54%, there is potential for a lively match.
Cliftonville FC's recent form includes 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Larne has 4 wins in their last 6. The expected goals are close, with Cliftonville FC at 1.45 and Larne at 1.41. However, Cliftonville's struggles could affect their performance, making the outcome less certain.
Cliftonville FC vs Larne: model vs market
| Source | Cliftonville FC | Draw | Larne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 27% | 35% |
| Market | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| Published | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -5% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cliftonville FC vs Larne odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Larne, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cliftonville FC | 4.68 | 4.40 | -0.28 |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.50 | -0.06 |
| Larne | 1.67 | 1.67 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cliftonville FC and Larne expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Cliftonville FC / Larne)
- 1.23 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Cliftonville FC / Larne)
- 0.90 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cliftonville FC vs Larne score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cliftonville FC goals. Columns: Larne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cliftonville FC vs Larne goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cliftonville FC vs Larne
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cliftonville FC | 25% | 4.05 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Larne | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cliftonville FC or draw) | 51% | 1.97 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Larne) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win by 2+ | 17% | 5.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cliftonville FC and Larne recent form
Cliftonville FC
2W 0D 4L
Larne
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cliftonville FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-4
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
Larne away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cliftonville FC at home only, Larne away only.
Cliftonville FC vs Larne head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cliftonville FC 1 · draws 3 · Larne 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Larne | 2-0 | Cliftonville FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-03-28 | Larne | 2-0 | Cliftonville FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-12-30 | Larne | 0-0 | Cliftonville FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-10-18 | Cliftonville FC | 0-2 | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-08-19 | Cliftonville FC | 1-1 | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-01-14 | Larne | 0-1 | Cliftonville FC | League Cup |
| 2025-01-10 | Larne | 2-0 | Cliftonville FC | Premiership |
| 2024-12-01 | Larne | 1-1 | Cliftonville FC | Premiership |
| 2024-09-27 | Cliftonville FC | 1-3 | Larne | Premiership |
| 2024-07-05 | Larne | 2-1 | Cliftonville FC | Charity Shield |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Portadown v Ballymena United — match page 2026-11-07
- Carrick Rangers vs Glentoran — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Dungannon Swifts vs Limavady United 2026-11-07
- Bangor v Crusaders FC — match page 2026-11-07
- Linfield vs Coleraine FC — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Cliftonville FC, previous: Cliftonville FC vs Carrick Rangers prediction
- Larne, previous: Larne – Portadown, 2026-10-30