Linfield vs Coleraine FC preview
In the Northern Ireland Premiership, Linfield faces Coleraine FC with both teams having a 36% chance to win according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% probability. Both teams have shown strong recent form, with Linfield recording 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while Coleraine FC has 4 wins and 1 loss in the same period.
The model suggests a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that unexpected outcomes could arise. The head-to-head record shows Linfield with 3 wins, Coleraine FC with 4 wins, and 3 draws in their last 10 encounters, which adds to the uncertainty of the match.
Linfield vs Coleraine FC: model vs market
| Source | Linfield | Draw | Coleraine FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Published | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.41, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Linfield vs Coleraine FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Coleraine FC, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linfield | 2.69 | 2.75 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Coleraine FC | 2.37 | 2.37 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Linfield and Coleraine FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Linfield / Coleraine FC)
- 1.08 / 1.42
- Defence rating (Linfield / Coleraine FC)
- 0.69 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Linfield vs Coleraine FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Linfield goals. Columns: Coleraine FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Linfield vs Coleraine FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Linfield vs Coleraine FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Linfield | 34% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Coleraine FC | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Linfield or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Coleraine FC) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Coleraine FC win by 2+ | 17% | 5.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Linfield and Coleraine FC recent form
Linfield
4W 2D 0L
Coleraine FC
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Linfield at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-1
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 7
- They have won 10 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coleraine FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 11 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Linfield at home only, Coleraine FC away only.
Linfield vs Coleraine FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Linfield 3 · draws 3 · Coleraine FC 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Coleraine FC | 1-3 | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-04-18 | Linfield | 0-3 | Coleraine FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-12-30 | Coleraine FC | 3-1 | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-11-08 | Linfield | 1-1 | Coleraine FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-10-28 | Coleraine FC | 2-2 | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-04-26 | Coleraine FC | 1-0 | Linfield | Premiership |
| 2025-02-22 | Linfield | 0-2 | Coleraine FC | Premiership |
| 2024-12-14 | Linfield | 3-0 | Coleraine FC | Premiership |
| 2024-09-28 | Coleraine FC | 0-3 | Linfield | Premiership |
| 2024-04-16 | Linfield | 2-2 | Coleraine FC | Premiership |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Cliftonville FC vs Larne 2026-11-06
- Portadown v Ballymena United — match page 2026-11-07
- Carrick Rangers vs Glentoran — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Dungannon Swifts vs Limavady United 2026-11-07
- Bangor v Crusaders FC — match page 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Linfield, previous: Linfield – Dungannon Swifts, 2026-10-31
- Coleraine FC, previous: Coleraine FC vs Glentoran: odds and pick