Portadown vs Ballymena United preview
In the fixture between Portadown and Ballymena United, the 1X2 probabilities show Ballymena United at 46%, compared to Portadown's 26%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Ballymena United's expected goals of 1.54 against Portadown's 1.10.
While both teams to score stands at 54%, the recent form indicates that Portadown has struggled, with two losses in their last three matches. Ballymena United, on the other hand, has won three of their last five. This disparity in form could lead to a different outcome than expected, especially if Portadown improves their performance.
Portadown vs Ballymena United: model vs market
| Source | Portadown | Draw | Ballymena United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 30% | 42% |
| Market | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Published | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Portadown vs Ballymena United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ballymena United, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portadown | 2.92 | 3.20 | +0.28 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.65 | +0.15 |
| Ballymena United | 2.11 | 1.95 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Portadown and Ballymena United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Portadown / Ballymena United)
- 0.73 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Portadown / Ballymena United)
- 1.07 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Portadown vs Ballymena United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Portadown goals. Columns: Ballymena United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Portadown vs Ballymena United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Portadown vs Ballymena United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portadown | 28% | 3.53 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Ballymena United | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Portadown or draw) | 54% | 1.84 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Ballymena United) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ballymena United win by 2+ | 20% | 4.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Portadown and Ballymena United recent form
Portadown
2W 1D 3L
Ballymena United
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Portadown at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 14 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ballymena United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Portadown at home only, Ballymena United away only.
Portadown vs Ballymena United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Portadown 5 · draws 1 · Ballymena United 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Ballymena United | 2-0 | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-04-18 | Ballymena United | 1-2 | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-03-07 | Ballymena United | 1-1 | Portadown | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-12-13 | Portadown | 1-0 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-08-19 | Portadown | 0-2 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-04-26 | Portadown | 2-1 | Ballymena United | Premiership |
| 2025-02-22 | Ballymena United | 2-0 | Portadown | Premiership |
| 2024-11-01 | Ballymena United | 0-3 | Portadown | Premiership |
| 2024-09-28 | Portadown | 0-1 | Ballymena United | Premiership |
| 2023-07-25 | Portadown | 2-1 | Ballymena United | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Cliftonville FC vs Larne 2026-11-06
- Carrick Rangers vs Glentoran — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Dungannon Swifts vs Limavady United 2026-11-07
- Bangor v Crusaders FC — match page 2026-11-07
- Linfield vs Coleraine FC — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Portadown, previous: Larne – Portadown, 2026-10-30
- Ballymena United, previous: Ballymena United v Bangor analysis