Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders FC preview
In the Northern Ireland Premiership match between Carrick Rangers and Crusaders FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Carrick Rangers at 56% to win, while both teams share a 22% chance for a draw and a Crusaders FC victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% prediction from our model.
Carrick Rangers have an expected goals figure of 2.10 compared to Crusaders FC's 1.54, indicating a stronger offensive performance. Additionally, there is a 71% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 70% likelihood that both teams will score. However, the recent form of Crusaders FC, with 6 consecutive matches without a win, could impact their performance.
Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders FC: model vs market
| Source | Carrick Rangers | Draw | Crusaders FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Market | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Published | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Carrick Rangers, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrick Rangers | 1.60 | 1.57 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.17 | 4.20 | +0.03 |
| Crusaders FC | 4.24 | 4.48 | +0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Carrick Rangers and Crusaders FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.65
- Attack rating (Carrick Rangers / Crusaders FC)
- 1.03 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Carrick Rangers / Crusaders FC)
- 1.30 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Carrick Rangers goals. Columns: Crusaders FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carrick Rangers | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Crusaders FC | 22% | 4.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Carrick Rangers or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Crusaders FC) | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Carrick Rangers win by 2+ | 30% | 3.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Carrick Rangers and Crusaders FC recent form
Carrick Rangers
2W 3D 1L
Crusaders FC
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Carrick Rangers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 8
- They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
Crusaders FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 8
- They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Carrick Rangers at home only, Crusaders FC away only.
Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Carrick Rangers 4 · draws 2 · Crusaders FC 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Carrick Rangers | 4-0 | Crusaders FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-03-28 | Carrick Rangers | 6-1 | Crusaders FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-12-30 | Crusaders FC | 2-2 | Carrick Rangers | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-11-08 | Carrick Rangers | 1-2 | Crusaders FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-08-09 | Crusaders FC | 3-4 | Carrick Rangers | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2024-12-30 | Carrick Rangers | 0-0 | Crusaders FC | Premiership |
| 2024-11-16 | Carrick Rangers | 3-0 | Crusaders FC | Premiership |
| 2024-08-31 | Crusaders FC | 2-1 | Carrick Rangers | Premiership |
| 2024-05-01 | Crusaders FC | 3-1 | Carrick Rangers | Premiership |
| 2023-12-30 | Crusaders FC | 2-0 | Carrick Rangers | Premiership |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Ballymena United vs Linfield — team news & stats 2026-11-13
- Coleraine FC vs Portadown 2026-11-13
- Glentoran vs Bangor — team news & stats 2026-11-13
- Larne vs Dungannon Swifts 2026-11-13
- Limavady United v Cliftonville FC — match page 2026-11-13
Before and after this match
- Carrick Rangers, previous: Carrick Rangers v Glentoran analysis
- Crusaders FC, previous: Bangor vs Crusaders FC prediction