Aberdeen vs Falkirk preview
Aberdeen faces Falkirk with a 47% chance of winning compared to 26% for both a draw and a Falkirk victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 9% probability. Aberdeen's expected goals stand at 1.60, while Falkirk's is lower at 1.18, suggesting a competitive match.
Aberdeen's recent form shows L-W-L-D-W-D, while Falkirk has W-W-L-D-W-D, indicating they are in slightly better shape. Despite this, head-to-head results reveal Aberdeen has not won in the last 3 encounters, recording 1 draw and 2 losses. Factors like goalkeeping errors or defensive lapses could lead to unexpected outcomes, impacting predictions like Over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 56%.
Aberdeen vs Falkirk: model vs market
| Source | Aberdeen | Draw | Falkirk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 47% | 26% | 26% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.18.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aberdeen vs Falkirk odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aberdeen, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | 1.92 | 1.96 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.56 | +0.04 |
| Falkirk | 3.64 | 3.59 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aberdeen and Falkirk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (Aberdeen / Falkirk)
- 0.99 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Aberdeen / Falkirk)
- 1.00 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aberdeen vs Falkirk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aberdeen goals. Columns: Falkirk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aberdeen vs Falkirk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aberdeen vs Falkirk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aberdeen | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Falkirk | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.77 |
| No | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aberdeen or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Falkirk) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aberdeen win by 2+ | 24% | 4.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aberdeen and Falkirk recent form
Aberdeen
2W 2D 2L
Falkirk
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aberdeen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Falkirk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aberdeen at home only, Falkirk away only.
Aberdeen vs Falkirk head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Aberdeen 0 · draws 1 · Falkirk 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Aberdeen | 1-1 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-01-03 | Falkirk | 1-0 | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-08-31 | Aberdeen | 0-1 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Celtic v Dundee Utd — match page 2026-10-28
- ST Mirren vs Hibernian — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Dundee v Kilmarnock — match page 2026-10-28
- ST Johnstone vs Motherwell 2026-10-28
- Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Aberdeen, previous: Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen prediction
- Aberdeen, next: Rangers vs Aberdeen: odds and pick
- Falkirk, previous: Falkirk – Kilmarnock, 2026-10-24
- Falkirk, next: Falkirk – Celtic, 2026-11-01