Dundee vs Kilmarnock preview
Dundee faces Kilmarnock with a 50% chance of winning, while both teams have a 25% probability of a draw or Kilmarnock winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with expected goals of 2.06 for Dundee and 1.26 for Kilmarnock.
Both teams to score has a probability of 63%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 65%. However, Dundee's recent form shows 2 draws and 1 win in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance. Kilmarnock's form includes 2 wins and 1 draw in the same period, indicating they could pose a challenge.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock: model vs market
| Source | Dundee | Draw | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 22% | 19% |
| Market | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Published | 51% | 25% | 25% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.16.
- The market prices Dundee below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Dundee vs Kilmarnock odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dundee, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee | 1.90 | 1.94 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.63 | 3.70 | +0.07 |
| Kilmarnock | 3.61 | 3.56 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dundee and Kilmarnock expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.28
- Attack rating (Dundee / Kilmarnock)
- 1.07 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Dundee / Kilmarnock)
- 1.00 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dundee goals. Columns: Kilmarnock goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dundee vs Kilmarnock
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dundee | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Kilmarnock | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dundee or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Kilmarnock) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dundee win by 2+ | 37% | 2.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dundee and Kilmarnock recent form
Dundee
2W 2D 2L
Kilmarnock
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dundee at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kilmarnock away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dundee at home only, Kilmarnock away only.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Dundee 3 · draws 4 · Kilmarnock 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Kilmarnock | 3-1 | Dundee | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-04-11 | Kilmarnock | 2-2 | Dundee | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-01-17 | Kilmarnock | 1-2 | Dundee | Scotland FA Cup |
| 2025-12-30 | Dundee | 2-1 | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-08-23 | Kilmarnock | 0-0 | Dundee | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-05-10 | Kilmarnock | 3-2 | Dundee | Premiership |
| 2024-11-30 | Kilmarnock | 1-1 | Dundee | Premiership |
| 2024-11-03 | Dundee | 3-2 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 2024-10-05 | Dundee | 2-3 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 2024-05-18 | Dundee | 1-1 | Kilmarnock | Premiership |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Celtic v Dundee Utd — match page 2026-10-28
- ST Mirren vs Hibernian — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Aberdeen vs Falkirk 2026-10-28
- ST Johnstone vs Motherwell 2026-10-28
- Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Dundee, previous: ST Mirren – Dundee, 2026-10-24
- Dundee, next: Hibernian vs Dundee prediction
- Kilmarnock, previous: Falkirk – Kilmarnock, 2026-10-24
- Kilmarnock, next: Kilmarnock – ST Johnstone, 2026-10-31