ST Johnstone vs Motherwell preview
In the match between ST Johnstone and Motherwell, the 1X2 probabilities show ST Johnstone at 47% to win, while Motherwell sits at 27%. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 2-0, which occurs 12% of the time. ST Johnstone has an expected goals figure of 2.02, compared to Motherwell's 0.85, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
However, ST Johnstone's recent form includes three draws in their last six matches, which could impact their performance. Motherwell, on the other hand, has lost five of their last six games, but they did manage one win. This inconsistency could lead to unexpected results, particularly in terms of Over 2.5 goals or both teams to score, which are projected at 55% and 51%, respectively.
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell: model vs market
| Source | ST Johnstone | Draw | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Published | 43% | 27% | 31% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices ST Johnstone below our published probability: +5.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.59, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +10.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell odds movement
Median bookmaker price on ST Johnstone, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| ST Johnstone | 2.21 | 2.49 | +0.28 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.40 | -0.02 |
| Motherwell | 3.00 | 2.67 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
ST Johnstone and Motherwell expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (ST Johnstone / Motherwell)
- 0.91 / 0.83
- Defence rating (ST Johnstone / Motherwell)
- 0.96 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ST Johnstone goals. Columns: Motherwell goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ST Johnstone vs Motherwell
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Johnstone | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Motherwell | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ST Johnstone or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Motherwell) | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | ST Johnstone win by 2+ | 35% | 2.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ST Johnstone and Motherwell recent form
ST Johnstone
2W 2D 2L
Motherwell
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ST Johnstone at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Motherwell away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: ST Johnstone at home only, Motherwell away only.
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: ST Johnstone 3 · draws 3 · Motherwell 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | ST Johnstone | 0-1 | Motherwell | League Cup |
| 2025-04-26 | Motherwell | 3-2 | ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2025-01-25 | ST Johnstone | 2-1 | Motherwell | Premiership |
| 2025-01-18 | ST Johnstone | 1-0 | Motherwell | Scotland FA Cup |
| 2024-11-09 | Motherwell | 2-1 | ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2024-08-31 | ST Johnstone | 1-2 | Motherwell | Premiership |
| 2024-05-19 | Motherwell | 1-2 | ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2024-01-27 | ST Johnstone | 1-1 | Motherwell | Premiership |
| 2023-12-09 | Motherwell | 1-1 | ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2023-11-07 | ST Johnstone | 2-2 | Motherwell | Premiership |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Celtic v Dundee Utd — match page 2026-10-28
- ST Mirren vs Hibernian — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Aberdeen vs Falkirk 2026-10-28
- Dundee v Kilmarnock — match page 2026-10-28
- Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- ST Johnstone, previous: Rangers vs ST Johnstone: odds and pick
- ST Johnstone, next: Kilmarnock – ST Johnstone, 2026-10-31
- Motherwell, previous: Motherwell v Heart Of Midlothian analysis
- Motherwell, next: Motherwell v ST Mirren analysis