ST Mirren vs Hibernian preview
In the match between ST Mirren and Hibernian, the 1X2 probabilities show Hibernian at 45%, ST Mirren at 29%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. ST Mirren's recent form shows 5 losses followed by 1 win, while Hibernian has 5 losses and 1 draw in their last 6 matches.
Both teams to score has a probability of 49%, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 42%. ST Mirren has expected goals of 1.15, while Hibernian has 1.22. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty. Factors like a sudden improvement in form or defensive errors could affect the outcome.
ST Mirren vs Hibernian: model vs market
| Source | ST Mirren | Draw | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Market | 28% | 25% | 46% |
| Published | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Edge | +3% | +1% | -4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
ST Mirren vs Hibernian odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hibernian, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| ST Mirren | 3.42 | 3.30 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.65 | +0.03 |
| Hibernian | 1.96 | 2.00 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
ST Mirren and Hibernian expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (ST Mirren / Hibernian)
- 0.81 / 0.79
- Defence rating (ST Mirren / Hibernian)
- 1.24 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ST Mirren vs Hibernian score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ST Mirren goals. Columns: Hibernian goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ST Mirren vs Hibernian goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ST Mirren vs Hibernian
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Mirren | 31% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Hibernian | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ST Mirren or draw) | 57% | 1.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Hibernian) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hibernian win by 2+ | 14% | 7.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ST Mirren and Hibernian recent form
ST Mirren
1W 0D 5L
Hibernian
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ST Mirren at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hibernian away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: ST Mirren at home only, Hibernian away only.
ST Mirren vs Hibernian head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: ST Mirren 3 · draws 4 · Hibernian 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Hibernian | 2-0 | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-11-08 | ST Mirren | 0-3 | Hibernian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-08-31 | Hibernian | 1-1 | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-05-14 | ST Mirren | 2-2 | Hibernian | Premiership |
| 2025-02-16 | ST Mirren | 0-0 | Hibernian | Premiership |
| 2024-11-09 | Hibernian | 1-2 | ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 2024-08-04 | ST Mirren | 3-0 | Hibernian | Premiership |
| 2024-02-03 | Hibernian | 0-3 | ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 2023-11-08 | ST Mirren | 2-2 | Hibernian | Premiership |
| 2023-09-27 | Hibernian | 4-2 | ST Mirren | League Cup |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Celtic v Dundee Utd — match page 2026-10-28
- Aberdeen vs Falkirk 2026-10-28
- Dundee v Kilmarnock — match page 2026-10-28
- ST Johnstone vs Motherwell 2026-10-28
- Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- ST Mirren, previous: ST Mirren – Dundee, 2026-10-24
- ST Mirren, next: Motherwell v ST Mirren analysis
- Hibernian, previous: Hibernian vs Celtic prediction
- Hibernian, next: Hibernian vs Dundee prediction