Updated

Serbia Super Liga · Matchday 13Postponed

OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

Alin prediction FK Crvena Zvezda to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 2

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
OFK BeogradDrawFK Crvena Zvezda

OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOFK BeogradDrawFK Crvena Zvezda
Model12%19%68%
Market———
Published12%19%68%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.10.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

OFK Beograd and FK Crvena Zvezda expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.10OFK Beograd
2.21FK Crvena Zvezda
Total expected goals
3.31
Attack rating (OFK Beograd / FK Crvena Zvezda)
0.92 / 1.55
Defence rating (OFK Beograd / FK Crvena Zvezda)
1.25 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 7.2% 8.9% 6.6% 6.1% 1 3.1% 9.8% 9.8% 7.2% 6.7% 2 2.2% 4.9% 5.4% 4.0% 3.7% 3 0.8% 1.8% 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 4+ 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5%

Rows: OFK Beograd goals. Columns: FK Crvena Zvezda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2OFK Beograd12%8.10
Draw19%5.14
FK Crvena Zvezda68%1.47
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.59
Under 2.537%2.71
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.82
No45%2.23
Double chance1X (OFK Beograd or draw)32%3.14
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or FK Crvena Zvezda)88%1.14
Handicap -1FK Crvena Zvezda win by 2+40%2.52
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

OFK Beograd and FK Crvena Zvezda recent form

OFK Beograd 0W 3D 3L
FK Crvena Zvezda 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

OFK Beograd at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-1
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.

FK Crvena Zvezda away

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-0
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
0.20
Clean sheets
4 of 5
  • They have won 10 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: OFK Beograd at home only, FK Crvena Zvezda away only.

OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: OFK Beograd 1 · draws 0 · FK Crvena Zvezda 2.

OFK BeogradDrawsFK Crvena Zvezda
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-22FK Crvena Zvezda1-2OFK BeogradSerbia Super Liga
2025-11-30OFK Beograd3-4FK Crvena ZvezdaSerbia Super Liga
2025-07-26FK Crvena Zvezda7-1OFK BeogradSerbia Super Liga

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match