Torino vs Udinese preview
In the Serie A fixture between Torino and Udinese, the key number is 54%, which represents the probability of Over 2.5 goals. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with 60% probability for both teams to score. The expected goals stand at 1.38 for Torino and 1.48 for Udinese, indicating a competitive match.
However, Torino's recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins and four losses in their last six games, while Udinese has improved with two wins and a draw in their last three matches. This inconsistency could impact the match outcome, making it possible for the probabilities to shift. The model gives Torino a 38% chance to win, while Udinese sits at 33%.
Why this pick: Torino vs Udinese
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Torino 10, Udinese 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Torino vs Udinese: model vs market
| Source | Torino | Draw | Udinese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Published | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Edge | -7% | +1% | +6% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Torino vs Udinese odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Torino, 40 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torino | 2.30 | 2.35 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.37 | 3.28 | -0.09 |
| Udinese | 3.17 | 3.00 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Torino and Udinese expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Torino / Udinese)
- 0.89 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Torino / Udinese)
- 1.13 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Torino vs Udinese score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Torino goals. Columns: Udinese goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Torino vs Udinese goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Torino vs Udinese
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torino | 38% | 2.61 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Udinese | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Torino or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Udinese) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Torino win by 2+ | 16% | 6.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Torino and Udinese recent form
Torino
1W 1D 4L
Udinese
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Torino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Udinese away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Torino at home only, Udinese away only.
Torino vs Udinese head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Torino 2 · draws 2 · Udinese 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Udinese | 2-0 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2026-01-07 | Torino | 1-2 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2025-04-23 | Torino | 2-0 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2024-12-29 | Udinese | 2-2 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2024-03-16 | Udinese | 0-2 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2023-12-23 | Torino | 1-1 | Udinese | Serie A |
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