Updated

Serie A · Matchday 6

Torino vs Udinese

· Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Turin· Referee Valerio Crezzini

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Torino to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TorinoDrawUdinese

Why this pick: Torino vs Udinese

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Torino 10, Udinese 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

TorinoUdinese
1.25 xG per 90 1.37
1.25 npxG per 90 1.37
14.0 PPDA 17.6
4.7 Deep completions per 90 6.1
0.97 xPTS per 90 1.18

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Torino vs Udinese: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTorinoDrawUdinese
Model33%30%37%
Market39%31%30%
Published38%31%31%
Edge-1%0%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Torino vs Udinese odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Torino, 52 snapshots since 2026-09-17.

Opened 2.30Now 2.44 +0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Torino2.302.44+0.14
Draw3.373.04-0.33
Udinese3.173.23+0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Torino and Udinese expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Torino
1.47Udinese
Total expected goals
2.86
Attack rating (Torino / Udinese)
0.89 / 1.11
Defence rating (Torino / Udinese)
1.12 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Torino vs Udinese score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.1% 6.1% 6.2% 3.0% 1.5% 1 5.6% 14.1% 8.6% 4.2% 2.1% 2 5.6% 8.1% 6.0% 2.9% 1.5% 3 2.6% 3.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.7% 4+ 1.2% 1.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Torino goals. Columns: Udinese goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Torino vs Udinese goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Torino vs Udinese

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Torino38%2.65
Draw31%3.24
Udinese31%3.18
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.84
Under 2.546%2.20
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.66
No40%2.51
Double chance1X (Torino or draw)69%1.46
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or Udinese)62%1.60
Handicap -1Torino win by 2+16%6.10
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Torino and Udinese recent form

Torino 1W 1D 4L
Udinese 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Torino at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Udinese away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
3.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Torino at home only, Udinese away only.

Injuries & availability

Torino absences

  • C. Casadei rest
  • F. Israel shoulder injury
  • P. Pellegri knee injury

Udinese absences

  • I. Gueye ankle injury
  • J. Piotrowski heart problems
  • N. Zaniolo thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Torino lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 20 Lucas Perri
  2. 13 R. Rodríguez
  3. 23 Saúl Coco
  4. 15 P. Comuzzo
  5. 77 A. Cacciamani
  6. 11 G. Oristanio
  7. 8 R. Mandragora
  8. 21 Daniel Bragança
  9. 45 R. Belghali
  10. 19 C. Adams
  11. 18 G. Simeone

Bench: N. Patterson, C. Biraghi, E. Cömert, E. İlkhan, Z. Aboukhlal, P. Pellegri, N. Vlašić, S. Kulenović, C. Casadei, D. Mascardi, K. Fitz-Jim, A. Ismajli, G. Gineitis, L. Siviero, D. Zapata

Udinese lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 40 M. Okoye
  2. 77 E. Ebosse
  3. 28 O. Solet
  4. 14 J. Abankwah
  5. 11 H. Kamara
  6. 6 Oier Zarraga
  7. 8 J. Karlström
  8. 23 M. Vojvoda
  9. 32 J. Ekkelenkamp
  10. 46 Unai Gómez
  11. 30 G. Chakvetadze

Bench: S. Lovrić, D. Alaba, K. Davis, N. Bertola, M. Palma, J. Arizala, C. Kabasele, L. Miller, B. Mrozek, L. Jovanović, D. Padelli

Torino vs Udinese head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Torino 5 · draws 2 · Udinese 3.

TorinoDrawsUdinese
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-02Udinese2-0TorinoSerie A
2026-01-07Torino1-2UdineseSerie A
2025-04-23Torino2-0UdineseSerie A
2024-12-29Udinese2-2TorinoSerie A
2024-03-16Udinese0-2TorinoSerie A
2023-12-23Torino1-1UdineseSerie A
2023-02-05Torino1-0UdineseSerie A
2022-10-23Udinese1-2TorinoSerie A
2022-02-06Udinese2-0TorinoSerie A
2021-11-22Torino2-1UdineseSerie A

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match