Ajman vs Baniyas SC preview
In the match between Ajman and Baniyas SC, the 1X2 probabilities show Ajman at 47%, while Baniyas SC sits at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Ajman has an expected goals figure of 1.83 compared to Baniyas SC's 1.40, indicating a stronger offensive performance.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Ajman has recorded two wins in their last five matches, while Baniyas SC has struggled with six games without a win, including five losses. The model suggests a 63% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 64% probability for both teams to score, but if Baniyas SC's form improves, these predictions could change.
Ajman vs Baniyas SC: model vs market
| Source | Ajman | Draw | Baniyas SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 25% | 29% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 29% |
| Published | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.40.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ajman vs Baniyas SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ajman, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajman | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.60 | +0.06 |
| Baniyas SC | 3.09 | 3.10 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ajman and Baniyas SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.23
- Attack rating (Ajman / Baniyas SC)
- 1.04 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Ajman / Baniyas SC)
- 1.28 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ajman vs Baniyas SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ajman goals. Columns: Baniyas SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ajman vs Baniyas SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ajman vs Baniyas SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajman | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Baniyas SC | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ajman or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Baniyas SC) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajman win by 2+ | 26% | 3.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ajman and Baniyas SC recent form
Ajman
3W 0D 3L
Baniyas SC
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ajman at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Baniyas SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ajman at home only, Baniyas SC away only.
Ajman vs Baniyas SC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ajman 1 · draws 1 · Baniyas SC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Ajman | 1-1 | Baniyas SC | United Arab Emirates Pro League |
| 2025-09-26 | Baniyas SC | 0-1 | Ajman | United Arab Emirates Pro League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan 2026-11-07
- Sharjah FC v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — match page 2026-11-07
- Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Al Nasr vs Dubai United 2026-11-08
- Al Wahda FC v Al Ain — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Ajman, next: Al Ain – Ajman, 2026-12-29
- Baniyas SC, next: Al-Jazira v Baniyas SC analysis