Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba preview
In the match between Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Dhafra at 36%, a draw at 26%, and Al-Ittihad Kalba at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 7% chance. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Al-Dhafra winning 2 of their last 6 matches and Al-Ittihad Kalba drawing 2 of their last 6.
The model predicts a high likelihood of goals, with a 62% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance for both teams to score. However, if Al-Dhafra's defense struggles or Al-Ittihad Kalba finds their scoring touch, the outcome could differ from the predictions.
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba: model vs market
| Source | Al-Dhafra | Draw | Al-Ittihad Kalba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 25% | 30% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 42% |
| Published | 36% | 26% | 39% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Ittihad Kalba, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Dhafra | 2.81 | 2.80 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.54 | +0.00 |
| Al-Ittihad Kalba | 2.15 | 2.20 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Al-Dhafra / Al-Ittihad Kalba)
- 0.85 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Al-Dhafra / Al-Ittihad Kalba)
- 1.10 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Dhafra goals. Columns: Al-Ittihad Kalba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Dhafra | 36% | 2.81 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Al-Ittihad Kalba | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Dhafra or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Ittihad Kalba) | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Ittihad Kalba win by 2+ | 14% | 6.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba recent form
Al-Dhafra
2W 0D 4L
Al-Ittihad Kalba
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Dhafra at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Dhafra at home only, Al-Ittihad Kalba away only.
Expected lineups
Al-Dhafra lineup · 4-4-2
- 44 A. Al Sayed
- 6 E. Noumonvi
- 33 Samir
- 3 D. Koumare
- 15 Abdullah Al Karbi
- 11 M. El Khaloui
- 21 R. Djooh
- 88 D. Mendy
- 16 M. Alhammadi
- 9 S. Kaba
Bench: Serafim, Mansor Al Harbi, Marcelinho, Z. Mohammed, Eisa Houti, L. Amesimeku, Rayan Yaslam, Y. Almarzooqi, A. Ben Fajria, Rodriguinho, Arielson
Al-Ittihad Kalba lineup · 4-4-2
- 33 Sultan Al Mantheri
- 16 Bader Nasser
- 19 Alejandro Vergaz
- 22 K. Günter
- 6 R. Alivoda
- 24 Khalid Al Darmaki
- 41 Neto
- 7 S. Ghoddos
- 77 Adyson
- 30 B. Tetteh
- 10 A. Noorollahi
Bench: A. Samdaliri, Ali Salmin, I. Cissé, Yaser Al Blooshi, Yousif Ali Almheiri, Ahmed Abunamous, Yan Phillipe, Hamad Almansoori, Juninho, Marwan Fahad, Carlos Alberto
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Al-Dhafra 1 · draws 4 · Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 1-1 | Al-Dhafra | United Arab Emirates Pro League |
| 2025-11-01 | Al-Dhafra | 3-0 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | United Arab Emirates Pro League |
| 2023-02-10 | Al-Dhafra | 0-2 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | Pro League |
| 2022-09-16 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 2-0 | Al-Dhafra | Pro League |
| 2022-03-11 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 2-2 | Al-Dhafra | Pro League |
| 2021-09-28 | Al-Dhafra | 1-1 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | Pro League |
| 2021-03-12 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 2-1 | Al-Dhafra | Pro League |
| 2020-11-27 | Al-Dhafra | 1-2 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | Pro League |
| 2019-12-15 | Al-Dhafra | 1-1 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | Pro League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan 2026-11-07
- Sharjah FC v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — match page 2026-11-07
- Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Al Nasr vs Dubai United 2026-11-08
- Al Wahda FC v Al Ain — match page 2026-11-08
- Ajman vs Baniyas SC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Al-Dhafra, next: Al-Wasl FC v Al-Dhafra analysis
- Al-Ittihad Kalba, next: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba prediction