Al Nasr vs Dubai United preview
In the match between Al Nasr and Dubai United, the key figure is Al Nasr's 56% probability to win compared to Dubai United's 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.41 for Al Nasr and 1.55 for Dubai United.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Factors that could affect the outcome include Al Nasr's recent form, which shows two draws and two losses in their last six matches. Additionally, while both teams to score has a 72% probability, the match could end differently if either team's attack or defense underperforms.
Al Nasr vs Dubai United: model vs market
| Source | Al Nasr | Draw | Dubai United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| Market | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Published | 58% | 22% | 21% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.55.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al Nasr vs Dubai United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al Nasr, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Nasr | 1.53 | 1.57 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.10 | -0.10 |
| Dubai United | 4.80 | 4.60 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al Nasr and Dubai United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.96
- Attack rating (Al Nasr / Dubai United)
- 1.02 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Al Nasr / Dubai United)
- 0.88 / 1.58
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Nasr vs Dubai United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Nasr goals. Columns: Dubai United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Nasr vs Dubai United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Nasr vs Dubai United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Nasr | 58% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.59 | |
| Dubai United | 21% | 4.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.38 |
| No | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Nasr or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Dubai United) | 42% | 2.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Nasr win by 2+ | 36% | 2.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Nasr and Dubai United recent form
Al Nasr
2W 2D 2L
Dubai United
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Nasr at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Dubai United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Nasr at home only, Dubai United away only.
Al Nasr vs Dubai United head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Al Nasr 1 · draws 0 · Dubai United 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Al Nasr | 3-1 | Dubai United | League Cup |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Hatta SC vs Khorfakkan 2026-11-07
- Sharjah FC v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — match page 2026-11-07
- Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Al Wahda FC v Al Ain — match page 2026-11-08
- Ajman vs Baniyas SC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Al Nasr, next: Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr: odds and pick
- Dubai United, next: Dubai United vs Khorfakkan: odds and pick