Uruguay Primera División · Clausura - 9

Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting

· Estadio Parque Federico Saroldi, Montevideo· Referee Jose Burgos

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Defensor Sporting to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Albion FCDrawDefensor Sporting

Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAlbion FCDrawDefensor Sporting
Model32%30%39%
Market33%29%39%
Published32%29%39%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Defensor Sporting, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.49Now 2.37 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Albion FC2.582.80+0.21
Draw3.103.20+0.10
Defensor Sporting2.492.37-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Albion FC and Defensor Sporting expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.16Albion FC
1.31Defensor Sporting
Total expected goals
2.47
Attack rating (Albion FC / Defensor Sporting)
0.77 / 0.87
Defence rating (Albion FC / Defensor Sporting)
1.41 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.7% 9.8% 7.2% 3.2% 1.4% 1 8.5% 14.1% 8.4% 3.7% 1.6% 2 5.7% 7.5% 4.9% 2.1% 0.9% 3 2.2% 2.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 4+ 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Albion FC goals. Columns: Defensor Sporting goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Albion FC32%3.08
Draw29%3.46
Defensor Sporting39%2.59
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.23
Under 2.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.94
No49%2.06
Double chance1X (Albion FC or draw)61%1.63
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Defensor Sporting)68%1.48
Handicap -1Defensor Sporting win by 2+18%5.54
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Albion FC and Defensor Sporting recent form

Albion FC 0W 0D 6L
Defensor Sporting 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Albion FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-3-8
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Defensor Sporting away

Record (W-D-L)
1-8-5
Win rate
7%
Goals for / match
0.79
Goals against / match
1.07
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Albion FC at home only, Defensor Sporting away only.

Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Albion FC 1 · draws 2 · Defensor Sporting 2.

Albion FCDrawsDefensor Sporting
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-31Defensor Sporting1-1Albion FCUruguay Primera División
2022-10-01Defensor Sporting2-0Albion FCPrimera División - Clausura
2022-05-07Albion FC0-3Defensor SportingPrimera División - Apertura
2021-09-30Defensor Sporting0-1Albion FCSegunda División
2021-06-16Albion FC2-2Defensor SportingSegunda División

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures